◼ Democrats could gain seats but probably not nearly enough - Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball
There is great symbolic importance to the lone U.S. House race where votes are being recounted. If Martha McSally (R) holds her narrow lead against Rep. Ron Barber (D, AZ-2), Republicans will have netted 13 House seats, giving them 247 in the 114th Congress and narrowly topping the 246 seats the Republicans held after the 1946 election, giving the GOP its biggest House caucus since 1928. If Barber somehow survives, the Republicans will only tie that mark with a net gain of 12.
The GOP gain proved to be a bit smaller than seemed likely on Nov. 4: ABC News, for instance, projected a 14-to-18 seat Republican net on Election Night. But Democrats won nearly all the races that were called in the days following the election. Still, the Republicans did slightly better than most prognosticators expected (we pegged them for a gain of nine before the election).
The outcome in AZ-2 doesn’t really change the overall outlook for the House going into 2016: Republicans have built themselves such a big advantage that it will be difficult, though not necessarily impossible, for Democrats to win back control of the chamber this cycle.... KEEP READING
