Finding: ‘El Niños 10,000 years ago were as strong and frequent as the ones we experience today’

◼ Ancient shellfish remains rewrite 10,000-year history of El Niño cycles - Watts Up With That?

The planet’s largest and most powerful driver of climate changes from one year to the next, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean, was widely thought to have been weaker in ancient times because of a different configuration of the Earth’s orbit. But scientists analyzing 25-foot piles of ancient shells have found that the El Niños 10,000 years ago were as strong and frequent as the ones we experience today.

◼ Don't bet on a mighty El Niño: It likely wouldn't help North Coast anyway, officials say - Times-Standard

A powerful El Niño that had been emerging in the Pacific Ocean is fizzling out, evaporating hopes it will deliver a knockout punch to California's three-year drought.

A new report from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration decreases the probability of an El Niño — the condition that occurs when warm Pacific Ocean water at the equator affects the jet stream — to 65 percent starting in October, down from 82 percent in June.

More significantly, researchers said, the ocean water that had been warming steadily through the spring has cooled off in recent months.

On the North Coast, National Weather Service hydrologist Reginald Kennedy said the events don't usually bring any significant changes to the area's rainfall — unlike regions farther south. In fact, the weather phenomenon tends to delay the rainy season by a month.

"Typically, it doesn't have any significant impact," Kennedy said. "This year, it would just prolong the dry conditions until November."