Sunday, April 14, 2013

In Venezuela



Last week campaign roundup: a summary and final prediction - Daniel in Venezuela

Last minute polls of doubtful origin or accuracy coincide at least all in that the gap of two months ago between Maduro and Capriles has been narrowing. Will it be enough for Capriles to win? reply in less than 24 hours. Which bring us to the need to write a brief overall summary of the whole campaign....

Capriles faced this most undemocratic election of our recent history with the resolve to expose the fraud that Maduro was, supported by a regime turning fascist quick. And the Capriles version 2013 has paid off. His numbers went up in the polls, Maduro was forced into making errors after mistakes and tomorrow Capriles who had no chance in hell in January could pull off tomorrow one of the biggest comebacks in political history, not only of Venezuela political history.

Is Capriles victory possible? Yes, it is, but I am not predicting it, the deck is too heavily slanted in favor of the regime which has committed so many abuses, starting with an electoral board openly favorable to Maduro to levels that even our jaded selves were not expecting. There is a serious risk that tomorrow Capriles may be forced not to recognize the results as the CNE simply opened itself up to tremendous charges before the first polling station opens.

The last, I hope, election day post - Daniel in Venezuela

...Those people are about to cross the line into public voting for a one party slate.... You know, like at the home of the colonial master, Cuba.

Venezuelans decide on Sunday whether to honor Hugo Chavez's dying wish for a longtime loyalist to continue his hardline socialism or hand power to a young challenger vowing business-friendly changes. - Reuters ◼ Via Drudge

Acting President Nicolas Maduro had a double-digit lead in most polls, largely thanks to his former boss's public blessing before he died from cancer last month. But the gap has narrowed in the final days, with one survey putting it at 7 percentage points.

His opposition rival, Miranda state Governor Henrique Capriles, says Venezuelans are tired of divisive "Chavista" politics and that his support has surged enough for him to pull off a surprise win.

Capriles' main campaign weapon was thus jujutsu: To simply point out "the incompetence of the state," as he put it to reporters in a news conference Saturday night. - CBS

Maduro gets a non-mandate and Capriles does not buy it - Daniel IN Venezuela

Now let's get down to business. Maduro got his very worst possible victory. And his aggressive unforgiving victory speech confirms to me that he understands it very well. Let's not forget that overseas votes have not been counted yet and that 50,66%, if real, is going to go down lower, to maybe as low as 50,3%. He claimed that Capriles called him up to "negotiate" and he gloated on how he put him down. More later: suffice tonight to observe that Maduro starts his tenure with an aggressiveness that can only bring him trouble, and repression for the rest of us.

Maduro lost about 1 million of Chavez votes, IN SPITE of an incredible abuse of state means to get the vote, IN SPITE of being the appointed heir. Now, what do you think his little friends inside chavismo, bypassed by Chavez, are going to say? Are they going to respect him the way they respected (or where afraid of) Chavez? See, Chavez for all of his abuse was never sabotaged, he inspired too much fear. Do you think Maduro is going to pull this trick starting with a bare 50%, with a unified opposition that could ally tomorrow with any breakaway chavista group that counts, say, 10% of the votes? No wonder that in a further act of necrophilia Maduro finished his "acceptance" speech with a recording of Chavez singing the national anthem.........

In his speech Capriles challenges the results. Not only he wants a recount but he seems hell bent on including all of the irregularities suffered. In short he is about to call for a repeat of the election, and the F word was used.

Capriles calls Maduro the great loser tonight! And the regime fascist.

Hard times ahead, whether Maduro gets to rule, or Capriles claim prospers.