◼ An examination of this year’s electoral landscape, relevant polling on President Obama, and the history of how Republicans win the presidency shows a pretty straightforward path for Romney.
Fortunately for Romney—in contrast to nominees like Bob Dole in 1996 and Walter Mondale in 1984—he does not have to convince people that their eyes are lying to them, that the state of the union is actually worse than it appears. People know that times are tough right now; they do not need Romney to convince them of that.
This is also President Obama’s key vulnerability. His job approval has been under 50 percent since the end of 2009, with only a few temporary exceptions; worse, his approval on the big issues is well into negative territory, with solid majorities disapproving of his handling of the economy, the deficit, and health care.
Romney’s essential task is thus to persuade people to act on their convictions. A majority of the American electorate is disappointed—one way or another—with the performance of this president.
