Saturday, October 4, 2014

California Drought – A Novel Statistical Analysis of Unrealistic Climate Models and of a Reanalysis That Should Not Be Equated with Reality

link - Watts Up With That?

We discussed the recent high sea surface temperatures in the eastern extratropical North Pacific in the post On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys.... The eastern extratropical North Pacific is the region with the recent persistent hot spot that contributed to the California drought. That region of the North Pacific cooled, not warmed, based on the linear trend from January 1989 to December 2012. That’s almost 2.5 decades where the sea surface temperatures cooled, before the unusual upswing....

And even with the addition of the most recent data, Figure 2, the sea surface temperatures of the eastern extratropical North Pacific show no warming since January 1989, based on the linear trend....

We also showed in that post that the sea surfaces of the North Pacific as a whole had not warmed from January 1989 to December 2012, the year before the unusual warming episode....

Let’s take a look at how well the models simulated those absences of warming. Wanna guess?
__________________

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 16 – Is There Still Hope for a Moderate El Niño?http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/what-california-can-learn-from-the-australian-drought-experience/
__________________

What California can learn from the Australian drought experiencehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/what-california-can-learn-from-the-australian-drought-experience/