◼ DEMS’ GRIP ON SENATE MAJORITY LOOKING INCREASING SHAKY - College Republicans
But what does all that mean? In a typical year three metrics are used to predict how a party will fare. They are, as Jay Cost writes for the Weekly Standard, the relative exposure of the parties, the political standing of the president and the pace of economic growth.
Democrats are clearly at a disadvantage in the first two.
◼ The Battle of 2014: With the midterm elections less than a year away, the terrain looks surprisingly favorable for Republicans - Jay Cost/Weekly Standard
...To get at partisan exposure, simply ask which party has the better playing field. Next year it is undoubtedly the Republicans. Democrats are defending seven Senate seats in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Of these, only North Carolina was close. Democrats also must defend six more seats in states where Republicans are competitive and often win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Republicans, meanwhile, are defending only one seat where the broader electoral dynamics favor the Democrats—in Maine.
This sets the context for appreciating not only the scope of potential gains for the GOP, but also the role that President Obama will play. Right now, his job approval is languishing in the low 40s, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. If that number is unchanged a year from now, the president is likely to be even less popular in the states that Romney won and right around that average in the purple states that are up for grabs. This will be an enormous challenge for Democratic candidates to overcome....
