◼ Even if the presidency isn’t decided until after midnight EST, there will be plenty of clues early in the evening on how things are going for President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Obama has more options for piecing together the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, so any early setbacks for Romney could be important portents of how the night will end. - AP/Washington Times
Here’s a timetable for armchair election watchers on how the night will unfold, based on what time the last polls close in each state. All times are EST.(PST)
—7(10) p.m.: Polls close in six states but all eyes will be on Virginia, the first of the battleground states to begin reporting results. If either candidate is comfortably ahead in Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, that could be a leading indicator of which way the night is going....
—7:30(10:30) p.m.: Polls close in three states, including all-important Ohio (18 electoral votes) and competitive North Carolina (15).
If Ohio is particularly close, and polls suggest it might be, there’s a chance the outcome there won’t be known until after Election Day, and the presidency could hinge on it. In the last several elections, between 2 percent and 3 percent of the state’s votes came from provisional ballots, which aren’t counted until later....
In North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested states, Romney appeared to have the late edge in polling. Obama, who narrowly won the state in 2008, has paid less attention to it recently. An Obama victory there could point to broader troubles for Romney.
—8(11) p.m.: More pieces of the puzzle will start falling into place as polls close in the District of Columbia and 16 states, including battlegrounds Florida (29) and New Hampshire (four).
Democratic-leaning parts of Florida tend to be the last places to report, so be careful about jumping to a conclusion if Romney looks strong early on. Most of the polls in Florida close at 7 p.m. Eastern, so by 8 p.m. Eastern, when the last polls close, results will start to roll out quickly. But fully 4.5 percent of votes in Florida weren’t counted on election night in 2008, so if things are tight, no one’s going to be hasty about declaring a victor in the state....
Tiny New Hampshire is another competitive state to watch closely.
Also keep watch on Pennsylvania for any signs of a Romney surprise. The state has long been considered safe for Obama, but Republicans started running ads there in the final week of the campaign and the GOP ticket was campaigning there Sunday. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state in nearly a quarter century.
—8:30(11:30) p.m.: Polls close in Arkansas (six), where Romney is comfortably ahead in surveys.
—9(midnight PT) p.m.: Polls close in 14 states, including battlegrounds Colorado (nine) and Wisconsin (10). Democrats have carried Wisconsin for six straight presidential elections and Obama had the edge in polling going in, so a flip here would be especially noteworthy.
Colorado, where almost 80 percent of voters cast early ballots, could be a straggler because it’s so close. Historically, as much as 10 percent of the state’s vote doesn’t get counted on election night, and those ballots could be decisive in a close race....
Two more to watch: Minnesota and Michigan. The states long have been considered safe for Obama, but the Republicans made late moves there.
— 10(1 a.m.) p.m.: Polls close in four states, including the last of the battlegrounds, Iowa (six) and Nevada (six).
Iowa’s been leaning toward Obama, but watch how the vote breaks down geographically. Can Romney’s advantage in GOP-heavy western Iowa overcome Obama’s edge in eastern swing territory?
If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin, Romney would have to have help from the West, in places like Nevada and Colorado. Nevada, where two-thirds of the electorate votes early, has been moving Obama’s direction in recent weeks, powered by strength in huge labor and Hispanic voting blocs. A Romney incursion there would really mean something
—11(2 a.m.) p.m.: Polls close in five western states, but most are foregone conclusions for Obama. He gets 78 electoral votes from California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington; Romney gets four from Idaho.
— 1(4 a.m.) a.m. Wednesday: The last of the polls close, in Alaska. Romney gets three electoral votes. Will many people still be up?
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Another take: ◼ WHITE HOUSE INSIDER – Tuesday Election Break Down – How Romney Wins - Ulsterman Report
Virginia: We got 13 electorals up for grabs to get the night rolling. Romney takes it by about 60-70 thousand votes. McDonnell has done some very solid work for us in the state and that has been a big advantage.
Pennsylvania: Some major trending for the governor right now that is being totally under-reported by the media. Some counties looking like they will be upwards of 70% Romney....
North Carolina: Romney. Early call.
Florida: Romney wins this by about 100,000 votes. The Jewish and Cuban votes are putting him well over the top here. Florida is always a big win for the one who gets it, and this time it’s the governor’s.
Wisconsin: Like McDonnell in Virginia, Walker has really helped with the ground game structure in Wisconsin. Incredible work due largely to that structure already being in place for the recent recall vote. Huge pick-up for the governor. The beginning of the “turn out the lights” moment for the Obama campaign. Romney by 30,000 votes which is a huge reversal from 2008. Something interesting has been happening in Wisconsin the last couple years. Major shift toward conservatism.
Iowa: Romney is going to sneak this one out by maybe 5-10 thousand votes. Very tight race. Good news is, we don’t need the state. A pick-up here is a bonus.
Colorado: By now the country will have a very good idea we have elected a new president. Romney will take Colorado by upwards of a 100,000 votes. Maybe a bit more. Like Wisconsin, a big shift away from the 2008 Obama #s.
Oregon: This is my you gotta be crazy call but I mentioned it to you before and I’m sticking to it. The most recent poll out there had Obama up six. That poll was a small sample though, and half that sample came from residents of Portland. The real deal is this, the state is basically split between the two candidates and has a huge % of undecideds who in the end will break for the governor. A late night shocker that will give the governor the ability to call this a mandate election.
Now you probably see I haven’t mentioned Ohio. A couple reasons. Don’t trust the voting out there. I know things can be rigged there more than other states with very few exceptions..... - More at the link.
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◼ Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily - Michael Barone/Washington Examiner @michaelbarone
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.
◼ George Will predicts 321-217 Romney landslide - Jeff Poor/Daily Caller
◼ I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled. - Peggy Noonan
◼ Romney’s Path to 270 - Ohio remains the state that will probably decide his fate. - Robert Costa/National Review
◼ Wargaming the Electoral College: The Final Edition - Vodkapundit/PJM
◼ Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide - Rush
◼ Paul Mirengoff and Bill Otis offer 13 reasons why Romney will win this election - Paul Mirengoff/Powerline
