◼ "If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election." - Susan Ferrechio/Washington Examiner
The CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday shows likely voters favoring Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Romney -- evidence, pundits said, of a post-convention bump for the president.
But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent....
A poll conducted two weeks ago by Democracy Corps showed Romney with a 15-point lead among independents, 53 percent to 38 percent.
Romney also appears to have an advantage over Obama when it comes to voter enthusiasm.
The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.
"This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day," Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse said in a Monday memo aimed at downplaying reports of an Obama bounce.
◼ OHIO IS NECK AND NECK - William Bigelow/breitbart
Two new polls indicate that contrary to the media hype, Ohio is now a toss-up between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. The American Research poll, conducted between September 10-12, showed Obama ahead 47% to 46%. The latest Rasmussen poll shows exactly the same numbers.
There are positive subtexts for Romney in both polls. In the American Research poll, independents favored Romney by a whopping margin, 53% to 37%. This bodes well for Romney with those who remain undecided. In the Rasmussen poll, voters said they trusted Romney on the economy more, which will ultimately prove pivotal, but the biggest edge they gave Obama was, strangely enough, on issues of national security. With the recent violence in the Middle East revealing Obama as feckless and weak, voters may be shifting in the near future in their opinions of Obama’s capabilities on foreign policy.
Ohio is up for grabs. And after the way Obama won Ohio handily in 2008, this will probably make the Nervous Nellies in the Obama White House a little Nellier.
